How one wishes there was a team competent modellers in Pakistan who could present the worst-case (do-nothing) scenario, the most likely response given the existing state of affairs, and the best-case outcome if appropriate measures were put in place.  I say this after the model run by London’s Imperial College became decisive in drastically changing public policy in the UK. Unfortunately, it is not the case, one to which we are addicted, that a foreign model can be imported and run here to determine our choice of public policies. Too many parameters are different and would need to be normalized to our circumstances. Take the most obvious one first. The degree of compliance with directives is much lower than in the UK -- I walked past a padlocked park where the ground staff were huddled together under one canopy sharing a cigarette. Citizens don’t trust the government...

Every single person is at risk -- Prince Charles and Boris Johnson have tested positive -- which makes this a crisis unprecedented in living memory and a supreme test of leadership. No one will get everything right but no one can afford to get everything wrong. Where leaders come out on the spectrum will determine how many live or die in each country. And the number of days it takes to arrive at the right decisions will determine the quantum of avoidable deaths. Regimes can be characterised by a set of attributes -- integrity, transparency, competence, legitimacy, authority. An ideal regime would possess all -- it would be honest, transparent and competent, trusted by citizens and with the authority to get things done. In the real world we have to make do with some mix that allows countries to muddle through for better or worse in...