Behavior / 03.04.2011

By Anjum Altaf Prayer, superstition, luck, talent, effort, unity, professionalism – what was it that won the Cricket World Cup in the end? I am reasonably convinced it was some combination of the last five; all the more reason for a fascination with the first two that were so visibly on display. What exactly is the role of prayer and superstition in our lives? Why do we resort to these devices? How seriously are we to take them? Are they harmful or harmless? A whole host of questions wait to be asked and addressed. At one level, there is a simple explanation. Any endeavor where the stakes are high and the outcome depends on some element of chance gives rise to nervousness and anxiety. And these feelings need to be assuaged. While participants in the endeavor can focus on the rigors of preparation and the demands of performance, spectators have no similar vehicles – prayer and superstition serve as substitutes.
Pakistan / 15.03.2009

In the three preceding posts (Here, Here and Here) we have pointed out pitfalls in analytical reasoning using the situation in Pakistan as case material. Readers are entitled to ask: What is good analysis? What follows is my perspective on what makes for good analysis. It is not original but something I was taught by a teacher I feel I was lucky to encounter. I enrolled for a course in Decision Analysis and this is what the teacher talked about in the first class: The most important concept to understand is that a Decision and an Outcome are two separate things. A Good Outcome is not necessarily the result of a Good Decision. A Bad Outcome is not necessarily the result of a Bad Decision. How can this be so? Because between the Decision and the Outcome there is something called Uncertainty or Randomness, something that you can never know fully in advance...